U.S. - Italy Research Workshop on
the
Hydrometeorology, Impacts and management of Extreme Floods
Perugia (Italy), November 13-17, 1995
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE 1994 FLOODING IN THE UPPER PO RIVER BASIN: FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS AND REAL-TIME PREDICTABILITY
Prof. Armando BRATH
Institute of Hydraulic Structures
University of Bologna
Bologna, Italy
The predictability of the flood event occurred in the Piedmont region (Northern Italy) during November 1994 is investigated. Statistical analysis are performed on both rainfall and hydrometric observations in order to assess the return period of the flood event. The possibility of forecasting the flood event is also investigated. Real-time flood forecasting is limited in the region, at the present state of technology, mainly because of the lack of reliable real-time forecasting of rainfall . However, quantitative rainfall forecasts obtained from the General Circulation Model of the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are in good agreement with the observed precipitation fields. Although these rainfall forecasts are at present not suitable for the use in real-time flood forecasting systems in small basins, because of the insufficient space-time resolution, their use for flood warnings in medium and large regions seems to offer interesting perspectives.